Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 10:50 AM ET · Shahryar Rahmani, MTC Desk
Qualcomm earnings reaction: Qualcomm reported fiscal Q4 results in line on profit (non-GAAP EPS $2.17 vs $2.16 expected) with revenue down 7% to $10.44 billion, and guided Q1 EPS to $2.15 to $2.35, a midpoint under analyst estimates. The stock opened about 12.2% lower, beyond the about 9.6% implied move, and was about 10.4% lower at 10:30 AM ET.
The Qualcomm earnings reaction vs what options priced
Before the report, the options market priced a move of about ±9.6% (TipRanks 9.59%, BigGo 9.6%). That is the swing traders were paying for, in either direction.
- Wednesday close: $173.19, up 5.33% on the day (Nasdaq.com).
- After hours: about $162.7, about −6%, at about 4:22 PM ET Nov 4 (Nasdaq.com, Finviz).
- The open: about $152.09, a gap of about −12.2%, larger than the implied move.
- First hour: high about $158.29 (−8.6%) at 10:03 AM, then about $155.12 (−10.4%) at 10:30 AM ET.
- Volume: about 9.8 million shares by 10:30 AM ET against an average of about 11.7 million a day (Nasdaq.com, Finviz).
The gap was bigger than priced, but not every gap is a surprise; we cover the idea in how to trade earnings season.
What the gap did at the Zones
Zones are areas where price reacted before, places to watch for a reaction, not entries. We read three off the daily bars (see support and resistance trading for the method):
- 172–175: Wednesday’s close ($173.19) and high ($174.00); the Oct 30 open was $174.82.
- 164–165: the Nov 3 close ($164.43) and the Oct 30 close ($164.79).
- 160–163: the Nov 3 low ($160.38), Oct 30 low ($161.72) and Nov 4 low ($162.75).
QCOM opened about $152.09, below all three Zones, and spent the first hour between about $152 and $158.29 without getting back to 160–163. There was no reaction at a Zone to read, because price never reached one; it was also below its 20-day (about $174), 50-day (about $178) and 200-day (about $170) averages (Finviz; see moving averages explained). The first-hour range, about $152 to $158, is the box to watch for the rest of the day.
What Qualcomm reported
Fiscal fourth quarter 2026, quarter ended September 27 (Qualcomm 8-K, filed November 4, 2026):
- Non-GAAP revenue $10.44 billion ($10,442 million), down 7%; the estimate we found was about $10.1 billion (Barron’s via Shattered, a single source). GAAP revenue $10.32 billion.
- Non-GAAP EPS $2.17, down 28%, vs $2.16 expected (FactSet via Shattered; Tech-Insider). GAAP EPS was $1.17.
- Chip business (QCT) revenue $9.02 billion, down 8%, with a 24% EBT margin (29% a year ago). Licensing (QTL) $1.30 billion, down 7%, 70% EBT margin.
- Handsets $5.14 billion, down 26%. Automotive $1.99 billion, up 89%. IoT $1.89 billion, up 4%.
- Renewed license agreements with Apple, Huawei and Transsion, and a multi-generational collaboration with Amazon for AI data centers.
Guidance vs consensus
- Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue $10.4 billion to $11.2 billion (midpoint $10.8 billion) vs about $10.48 billion expected (Tech-Insider, single source).
- Q1 non-GAAP EPS $2.15 to $2.35 (midpoint $2.25) vs about $2.27 (Tech-Insider) to $2.32 (Bloomberg via Shattered). The sources differ, but the midpoint is below both.
- Qualcomm pointed to a broad-based rise in input costs across wafer fabrication, packaging and memory, and said the full benefit of its pricing actions should reach chip-business gross margins in the second half of fiscal 2027 (8-K).
- The company reiterated its fiscal 2027 Data Center revenue target of $5 billion and said non-handset revenue should grow more than 60% (8-K).
CEO Cristiano Amon, in the release: “Fiscal 2027 marks the start of our non-handset revenue inflection, including the ramp of our Data Center business.”
What it teaches
A report that is in line on the quarter can still gap hard when the guide disappoints. Here the gap opened beyond the implied move and below every Zone we had marked, so the first hour was about where price would settle, not about a Zone reaction. Mark the Zones above, wait for price to reach one, and let confirmation come to you. For how we prepared for this morning, see the Nov 5 premarket brief, and for yesterday’s session, the Nov 4 close recap.
No alignment, no trade.
FAQ
Qualcomm’s fiscal Q4 results were roughly in line (non-GAAP EPS $2.17 vs $2.16 expected; revenue $10.44 billion, down 7%), but the first-quarter guide pointed to non-GAAP EPS of $2.15 to $2.35, with a midpoint below analyst estimates of about $2.27 to $2.32, while Qualcomm cited higher input costs, including memory (8-K). The stock opened about 12% lower on November 5, 2026 and was about 10% lower at 10:30 AM ET.
Options priced a move of about 9.6% either way (TipRanks and BigGo). QCOM opened about 12.2% below Wednesday’s close, a gap bigger than the implied move, and was about 10.4% lower at 10:30 AM ET.
Qualcomm guided fiscal Q1 2027 revenue to $10.4 billion to $11.2 billion and non-GAAP EPS to $2.15 to $2.35. It also said the full benefit of its pricing actions should show up in chip-business gross margins in the second half of fiscal 2027.
The implied move is the size of the price swing the options market is pricing for an event like earnings, in either direction. Comparing the real move with it shows whether the news was a surprise or roughly priced in.
Sources: Qualcomm fiscal Q4 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (sec.gov); Tech-Insider, Shattered (FactSet, Bloomberg and Barron’s estimates); earnings call highlights (Yahoo Finance); TipRanks and BigGo (implied move); Nasdaq.com (1-minute prices, daily bars, extended-hours, volume) and Finviz (chart, averages, volume). Prices are approximate and carry their time. Featured image: AI-edited from a photo of Qualcomm headquarters (Wikimedia Commons, CC). Left out: a verdict on the Q1 EPS estimate (sources disagree) and AppLovin, the other large reporter.
Education only. Not financial advice.
