Friday, November 13, 2026 · 8:15 AM ET · Shahryar Rahmani, MTC Desk
October PPI is the morning’s event. Wholesale inflation at 8:30 AM ET is expected up about 0.4% month over month after a 1.3% jump in September, three days after a hot CPI. Futures were mixed overnight; SPY was about +0.2% and QQQ about +0.1% at 7:43 AM ET. Nvidia is steadying while Cisco slips.
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Morning, I’m Shah, your host, and this is MTC Radio, premarket edition.
So the big one this morning isn’t a company, it’s the data. October producer prices come out at eight thirty, and that’s wholesale inflation, the cost of things before they even reach the shelf. The reason everyone cares is it comes just three days after a hot consumer inflation number, and parts of it feed into the gauge the Fed watches most closely. Economists are looking for about four tenths of a percent, which would be a lot cooler than the one point three we got in September, but still warm. A hot number and you can expect more pressure on rates and on tech. The ten year is already sitting up near five percent.
On the stocks, Nvidia is actually catching its breath, up about one percent as of about a quarter to eight, after that sharp drop yesterday when the CEO stepped down. The flip side is AMD and Broadcom, which jumped yesterday, are giving a little back this morning.
Then there’s Cisco, and this one’s a good lesson. They beat on revenue, beat on earnings, and raised their outlook for the year. And the stock is down about three and a half percent. Why? Margins. Their profit margin slipped because more of their sales are now lower-margin data-center hardware, plus pricier memory chips. So a beat isn’t always a green day. It’s a good reminder to read past the headline. Cerebras, on the other hand, popped about thirteen percent on record revenue.
Now the levels. Spy is around seven fifty nine, sitting right in the middle, between zones. Above it, seven sixty two and a half to seven sixty three is yesterday’s high. Below, seven fifty three and a half to seven fifty five is where buyers stepped in yesterday. Q Q Q is around six eighty eight, also in the middle of its range, six ninety four and a half to six ninety five and a half above, six seventy nine and a half to six eighty one below. When price is stuck in the middle like this, I just wait for it to come to a zone. No need to force the middle.
And the most important part today, I am not trading into that eight thirty number. Let the first reaction settle, let price come to a zone and actually react, then we talk. It’s also an options expiration day, so the swings can get jumpy.
So yeah, that’s what I’m watching. If you want to trade it with us, we’re live Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday in the community. See you there.
Economists look for headline PPI of about 0.4% and core PPI of about 0.3% (1Trader preview; Continuum Economics forecasts the same), with the yearly rate near 6.6% (Dow Jones survey via 1Trader). It matters because parts of PPI feed the PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and markets already lean toward a December rate increase after Tuesday’s CPI. The 10-year Treasury yield sat near 5.1% at Thursday’s close (Yahoo Finance).
The other story is earnings. Cisco and Applied Materials beat on Thursday night, and Cerebras posted record revenue, but the reactions are mixed this morning. Thursday’s full session, including Nvidia’s CEO change, is in our after-hours recap hub, and daily updates live on our stock market today hub.
Market Snapshot: Mixed Into the Data
| Market | Move | Note |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | about −0.1% to +0.1% | Mixed overnight (3:01–4:52 AM ET) |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | about −0.3% to −0.2% | Investing.com, Stocktwits, TokenPost |
| Dow futures | about flat | Investing.com; Stocktwits −0.09% |
| SPY premarket | 759.10 (about +0.2%) | 7:43 AM ET; Thursday close 757.25 |
| QQQ premarket | 688.66 (about +0.1%) | 7:43 AM ET; Thursday close 688.17 |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | about +0.2% | 7:43 AM ET (Nasdaq.com) |
Top Premarket Stories
Moves are premarket, as of about 7:44–7:45 AM ET (Nasdaq.com).
Cisco (CSCO), about −3.4%. It reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $18.5 billion, up 24% and a record, against about $18.14 billion expected, and adjusted earnings of $1.40 a share versus $1.33 expected. It raised its full-year revenue outlook to $74.8–$75.8 billion. The catch is margins: non-GAAP gross margin fell to 65.6% from 68.1% a year ago (product margin down 350 basis points) on a bigger mix of lower-margin AI networking hardware and higher memory costs (Cisco release; Yahoo Finance). The stock was about +5.8% after hours Thursday (4:32 PM ET) before fading.
Cerebras (CBRS), about +13%. The AI-chip company reported record third-quarter revenue and guided fourth-quarter core revenue to $310–$330 million, above a roughly $271 million consensus (KuCoin, single source).
Nvidia (NVDA), about +1.1%. It is steadying near $168 after Thursday’s 4.3% drop on CEO Jensen Huang’s resignation; CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO (8-K). AMD was about −2.4% and Broadcom about −2.1%, giving back part of Thursday’s 5.9% and 5.5% gains.
Applied Materials (AMAT), about −0.5%. It reported fourth-quarter revenue of $10.41 billion versus $10.30 billion expected and guided first-quarter revenue to $11.1 billion, plus or minus $500 million, above the roughly $10.89 billion consensus (Reuters/LSEG via Investing.com).
Microsoft (MSFT), about −1%. Outlook, Teams and Copilot outages ran into a second day (Investing.com; Stocktwits).
Candel (CADL), about −33% after delaying its planned FDA application, while Sellas (SLS) was about +10% ahead of expected leukemia-trial results (Stocktwits).
Rates and Commodities
| Asset | Early Friday | One line |
|---|---|---|
| 10-year yield | about 5.1% | At Thursday’s close (Yahoo Finance); TLT about −0.4% premarket |
| WTI crude | about $88.5–$88.8 | Stocktwits 4:30 AM ET; Brent about $96 |
| Gold | about $3,902 | Up about 0.4% after a 13-month low Thursday (Investing.com) |
Economic Data Today
| Time (ET) | Release | Consensus | Prior | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8:30 AM | Producer Price Index (Oct), m/m | about +0.4% | +1.3% | +0.3% |
| 8:30 AM | Core PPI ex food & energy (Oct), m/m | about +0.3% | +0.7% | — |
| 8:30 AM | PPI (Oct), y/y | about 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% |
PPI is the first major data of the day and the main catalyst. A hotter reading could lift December rate-hike odds and push yields higher, pressuring growth stocks; a softer one could give them some relief (1Trader). It is also a weekly options expiration, which can add to intraday swings. Our guide to using premarket data shows how we prep a data morning like this.
Earnings
Reported Thursday after the close: Cisco, Applied Materials and Cerebras (all above). The before-the-open calendar today is light. Next week: Nvidia reports Tuesday, November 17, after the close, its first results since the CEO change.
What to Watch Next
SPY was about 759.1, between its Zones. The upper Zone, 762.5–763, is Thursday’s 11:23 AM high and Wednesday’s high; the lower Zone, 753.5–755, is Thursday’s opening low and Wednesday’s low, where buyers stepped in on Thursday. We’d watch how price reacts if it tests either Zone after the open, not the first PPI candle.
QQQ was about 688.7, near the middle of the range. The upper Zone, 694.5–695.5, is Thursday’s high and Wednesday’s high; the lower Zone, 679.5–681, is Thursday’s opening low and Tuesday’s high. The middle is no-man’s-land, so we’d wait for price to reach a Zone and show a reaction with SPY agreeing. Last week’s chip bounce brief shows how a data-driven morning can set up.
The plan: no trades into the 8:30 print. Let the first reaction settle, then look for a Zone test with a clear reaction and confirmation on the 5-minute. No alignment, no trade.
FAQ
Economists expect the October Producer Price Index to rise about 0.4% month over month, slowing from 1.3% in September, with core PPI up about 0.3% (1Trader preview; Continuum Economics). On a yearly basis the headline rate is seen near 6.6% (Dow Jones survey via 1Trader), up from 6.3% in September. The report is out at 8:30 AM ET.
Cisco was down about 3.4% at 7:44 AM ET (Nasdaq.com) even after reporting record quarterly revenue of $18.5 billion, up 24%, and adjusted earnings of $1.40 a share, both above expectations, and raising its full-year revenue outlook. Investors focused on the gross margin, which fell to 65.6% from 68.1% a year ago on a bigger share of lower-margin AI networking hardware and higher memory costs (Cisco release; Yahoo Finance).
Nvidia was about +1.1% at 7:44 AM ET (about $168) after Thursday’s 4.3% drop, when CEO Jensen Huang resigned and CFO Colette Kress was named interim CEO (8-K). Nvidia reports earnings on Tuesday, November 17, after the close.
On SPY, 762.5 to 763 is the upper Zone and 753.5 to 755 the lower Zone; SPY was about 759.1 at 7:43 AM ET, between them. On QQQ, 694.5 to 695.5 is the upper Zone and 679.5 to 681 the lower Zone; QQQ was about 688.7, near the middle. These are places to watch for a reaction, not entries, and we don’t trade into the 8:30 PPI print.
Sources: Nasdaq.com premarket quotes (7:42–7:45 AM ET); Investing.com via Yahoo Finance (futures at 3:01 AM ET); Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance (4:30 AM ET); TokenPost (4:52 AM ET); KuCoin; 1Trader and Continuum Economics (PPI preview); Cisco, Applied Materials and Cerebras releases; Kiplinger; Thursday close recap. Featured image: Cisco headquarters photo by Ashwin Kumar (Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0), AI-edited. Premarket moves are approximate and change before the open.
Education only. Not financial advice.
