CPI week starts Tuesday, November 10 at 8:30 AM ET, and this time the BLS won’t publish a year-over-year number for most of the index. Forecasts call for +0.3% on the month (core +0.2%). Applied Materials and Cisco report Thursday after the close, and PPI lands Friday.
This is the blog edition of The Sunday Setup, my weekly email for traders. Here’s what happened last week, what matters this week, and how I’m planning around it.
Last Week in One Line: A Rally, Then a 5% Nasdaq Day
Wednesday, after the election results, the Dow jumped about 3% (our Nov 4 close recap). Thursday, the Nasdaq fell 5.52% and closed in a correction, its worst day since April 2025 (Nov 5 close recap). Friday brought a partial rebound in chip stocks after a hot jobs report (Nov 6 close recap).
For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.7% to 7,376.86, the Nasdaq 3.4% to 24,579.42, the Dow 0.9% to 51,285.73 and the Russell 2000 2.1% to 2,754.11 (AP, checked against Nasdaq ETF closes).
Tech did the damage: the tech sector ETF (XLK) fell 8.2% and energy (XLE) 12.0%. Micron lost 22%, Palantir 12.9%, AMD 11% and Nvidia 8.8%. October payrolls rose 165,000 against about 65,000 expected, and unemployment ticked down to 4.1% (BLS).
CPI Week: Why There’s No Year-Over-Year Number
October CPI is out Tuesday at 8:30 AM ET (BLS schedule). The forecast is +0.3% month over month for headline CPI and +0.2% for core, which leaves out food and energy (Economic Weekly consensus). September was +0.6% and +0.3%.
The twist: the 2025 government shutdown stopped the BLS from collecting most October 2025 prices. So the BLS says it won’t publish 12-month changes for October 2026 for indexes where the October 2025 data are missing. That’s most of the index. The monthly change carries the report.
What I watch: the monthly change for headline and core first, then how price reacts at the zones I marked the night before. Expect messy headlines; some outlets may estimate a yearly figure.
The Week, Day by Day (Times ET)
- Mon Nov 9: Fed speakers Bowman (8:40, per Investing.com), Goolsbee (10:00) and Barkin (12:15 PM, inflation and policy). Constellation Energy and KKR before the open; Take-Two, Rocket Lab, Occidental and Hims & Hers after the close.
- Tue Nov 10: NFIB at 6:00, CPI at 8:30. Sea and On Holding before the open; CoreWeave after the close.
- Wed Nov 11: Veterans Day. Stocks open, bond market closed (SIFMA).
- Thu Nov 12: jobless claims 8:30 (193K expected), existing home sales 10:00 (3.87M expected), Goolsbee 11:15. Cisco and Applied Materials after the close.
- Fri Nov 13: PPI at 8:30, +0.3% month over month expected. No big U.S. earnings.
Forecasts are the Economic Weekly (CalculatedRisk) consensus. Fed times: Richmond Fed, Fed Gazette and Investing.com.
Earnings Watch: What Options Are Pricing
The implied move is the options market’s guess at the size of the reaction, in either direction. Per earnings-watcher (Nov 6, single source): CoreWeave about ±21.2%, Hims & Hers ±16.1%, Rocket Lab ±15.4%, Sea ±14.0%, Applied Materials ±10.4% and Constellation Energy ±8.0%. Cisco has no published implied move; analysts expect $1.15 a share, and $4.06 for Applied Materials (StockTitan).
One Lesson: The Number Is Not the Trade
Friday’s jobs report came in at more than double the forecast, and the S&P 500 closed up 0.3% (AP; our Friday premarket brief laid out the setup). The headline was loud. The reaction was quiet.
That’s why we run the Alignment Engine the same way on data days: Bias, Zone, Reaction, Confirmation, Execution. The number tells you what happened. Price at a zone tells you what it meant.
How I’m Handling It
- Monday night: zones marked for Tuesday. Places to watch for a reaction, not orders.
- Tuesday 8:30: flat into CPI. Read headline and core month over month, then wait for price to react at a zone.
- Thursday night: no position into Applied Materials or Cisco I’d mind seeing gap against me.
- All week: smaller size after a week with a 5% Nasdaq day.
If the data moves faster than the setup, I’d rather miss the move than guess it. No alignment, no trade.
FAQ
Mostly no. Because the 2025 government shutdown stopped the BLS from collecting most October 2025 prices, the BLS says it will not publish 12-month changes for October 2026 for indexes where October 2025 data are missing. The monthly change is the main number this time.
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET, per the BLS release schedule. The forecast is +0.3% month over month for headline CPI and +0.2% for core (Economic Weekly consensus).
Yes. U.S. stock exchanges trade normal hours on Wednesday, November 11. SIFMA recommends a full close for the U.S. bond market that day.
Sources: BLS (CPI release schedule; 2025 shutdown CPI FAQ, updated Sep 16 2026; Employment Situation, October 2026), AP, Nasdaq.com, CNN, Treasury.gov, Economic Weekly (CalculatedRisk), FinancialJuice, Investrade, SIFMA, Richmond Fed, Fed Gazette, Investing.com, StockTitan, earnings-watcher. Single-source figures are named in the text. Featured image: Meta Trading Club desk photo. Charts: Meta Trading Club.
Written by Shahryar Rahmani. Education only. Not financial advice.
