Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 8:00 AM ET · Shahryar Rahmani, MTC Desk
Futures flip higher after Democrats won control of the House and the Senate. S&P 500 futures were down about 1.2% around midnight ET, then were up about 0.9% by 7:45 AM ET. ADP is out at 8:15 AM and ISM Services at 10:00 AM; Qualcomm and Arm report after the close.
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Morning, I’m Shah, your host, and this is MTC Radio, premarket edition.
Okay, so the big story this morning is the election. Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate. And the first reaction was not pretty. Around midnight, S&P 500 futures were down about one point two percent, and Nasdaq futures were down about two percent. But then it flipped. As of about seven forty five, S&P futures are up about point nine percent, the Dow is up about one point six, and small caps are up about one point four.
So why the flip? No one clean reason yet. Asian stocks did rally overnight, partly on Trump’s conciliatory comments, according to one analyst. Now, the worry is tech. Investors are worried a Democratic Congress means more scrutiny on big tech spending and data centers. So the Nasdaq is lagging this morning, and data center names like CoreWeave are down about seven percent.
All right, three things that matter today.
Number one, the election, which we just covered. Tesla is down about six percent on it too, plus the talk about a possible Tesla and SpaceX merger.
Number two, earnings. Datadog beat on revenue and earnings, guided next quarter about flat, roughly in line with estimates, and the stock is still down about seventeen percent. Novo Nordisk is up about seven percent after a beat and a higher outlook. And AMD, which jumped after its report last night, traded as high as five twenty three early this morning, and now it’s only up about one percent. So the market basically gave most of that back.
Number three, the data. ADP jobs at eight fifteen, and ISM Services at ten. And Friday we get the October jobs report.
So with that being said, let’s talk Zones. On Spy, the S&P 500 fund, the upper Zone is seven fifty six, seven fifty seven, that’s yesterday’s high. Premarket is sitting above it, around seven sixty one. If we pull back into that Zone and it holds, that’s the reaction I want to see. However, if we slip back under it, well, there is a possibility of a gap fill down toward seven fifty four, and then the seven fifty two, seven fifty three Zone.
On Q Q Q, the upper Zone is six eighty eight, six eighty nine, and premarket is right under it. I want to see acceptance above that before I trust tech today.
Why am I being careful? Because it’s a big gap after a massive overnight reversal, and we have news at eight fifteen and ten. I’m not trading into eight fifteen or ten o’clock.
Calendar, all Eastern time. ADP at eight fifteen. ISM Services at ten. After the close, Qualcomm, Arm and AppLovin report.
See you at the open. We trade live four days a week, Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. This is education, not financial advice. No alignment, no trade.
The election results came in after Tuesday’s close, and the first reaction was a sell-off. At 12:00 AM ET, S&P 500 futures were down 1.18% and Nasdaq 100 futures down 2.09% (Saxo). By 5:25 AM ET they had turned around (TipRanks), and at 7:45 AM ET S&P 500 futures were up about 0.9%, Nasdaq 100 futures about 0.4%, Dow futures about 1.6% and Russell 2000 futures about 1.4%.
Overnight, Asian stocks rallied, partly on Trump’s conciliatory comments (Capital.com’s Daniela Hathorn, via TheStreet). In a call with CBS News, Trump congratulated Democrats and said he would “just veto everything” if they don’t work with him (TheStreet).
The worry is tech and data centers. Investors expect more scrutiny of AI spending and data center growth under a Democratic Congress (TipRanks; TheStreet). In Texas, Democrat Gina Hinojosa beat Gov. Greg Abbott; she has pledged a pause on new data center construction (Yahoo Finance; TipRanks). The Nasdaq 100 is lagging the Dow and small caps this morning.
Market Snapshot: Futures Flip Higher
| Market | Move | Note |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | about +0.9% | 7:45 AM ET; was −1.18% at 12 AM ET |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | about +0.4% | Was −2.09% at 12 AM ET |
| Dow futures | about +1.6% | Leading |
| Russell 2000 futures | about +1.4% | Small caps lead too |
| SPY premarket | 760.92 (about +0.9%) | 7:44 AM ET; Tuesday close 754.35 |
| QQQ premarket | 687.59 (about +0.3%) | 7:44 AM ET; Tuesday close 685.28 |
On Tuesday the S&P 500 rose 0.36% and the Nasdaq 0.83%, while the Dow fell 0.38%. The full story is in our Tuesday close recap.
Top Premarket Stories
Moves are premarket, as of about 7:45 AM ET (Nasdaq.com).
Datadog (DDOG), about −17%. Third-quarter revenue rose 35% to $1.20 billion, ahead of the roughly $1.14 billion expected, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.81 beat the roughly $0.64 consensus. But it guided fourth-quarter revenue to $1.19–$1.20 billion, about flat with the quarter it just reported and roughly in line with estimates (Datadog release; StockStory).
Novo Nordisk (NVO), about +7%. Adjusted sales of DKK 79.2 billion beat the roughly DKK 73.6 billion expected, and Wegovy pill sales of DKK 5.39 billion beat DKK 4.55 billion. Novo raised its 2026 sales and operating profit growth outlook to −2% to +2%, from −6% to flat (Reuters; CoinCentral).
Tesla (TSLA), about −6%. Investors worry about more scrutiny of Elon Musk’s companies under a Democratic Congress, and reports of a possible all-stock Tesla-SpaceX merger add uncertainty (Yahoo Finance; CoinCentral).
CoreWeave (CRWV), about −7%. Data center names are lower on worries about tighter rules (TipRanks; KuCoin).
AMD, about +1%. Third-quarter revenue rose 45% to $13.38 billion, non-GAAP EPS was $2.09 and data center sales nearly doubled to $8.5 billion. It traded as high as $523 just after 4 AM, then gave most of it back (AMD release; Nasdaq.com pre-market data).
Super Micro (SMCI), about +3% on revenue of $19.9 billion and a fiscal second-quarter sales guide of $19.5–$21.5 billion (SEC 8-K). McDonald’s (MCD), about +2%: EPS of $3.51 met estimates, revenue of $7.16 billion missed, and U.S. same-store sales slipped 0.2% (Nation’s Restaurant News; StockStory). There’s no clear reason for the McDonald’s gain yet.
Sectors
Small caps and the Dow lead, while data center and AI infrastructure names are the weak spot. Watch whether that split holds after the open, or if buyers come back to tech.
Rates, Dollar and Commodities
| Asset | Early Wednesday | One line |
|---|---|---|
| 10-year yield | about 4.9% | TipRanks 4.92%; Saxo about 4.90% |
| WTI crude | about $95–96, lower | Iran peace efforts in focus (TipRanks) |
| Brent crude | about $103 | TipRanks |
| Gold | higher | Money moved into Treasuries and metals overnight |
Gold is shown without a level, and the VIX is left out today, because our sources gave different numbers at different times.
Economic Data Today
| Time (ET) | Release | Consensus | Prior | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8:15 AM | ADP Private Employment (Oct) | +65K to +70K | +90K | — |
| 10:00 AM | ISM Services PMI (Oct) | about 54.7–54.8 | 54.9 | — |
ADP counts private-sector hiring. Consensus is about 65,000–70,000 (Yahoo Finance; EBC) after 90,000. It’s a warm-up for Friday’s October jobs report at 8:30 AM. ISM Services asks purchasing managers at service companies whether business is growing; above 50 means growth. No Fed speakers are confirmed for today.
Earnings
Before the open: Novo Nordisk, Datadog, McDonald’s and CVS Health. Uber also reports today (timing not confirmed).
After the close: Qualcomm, Arm (call at 5:00 PM ET) and AppLovin. Qualcomm and Arm land right in the middle of today’s chip and data center debate.
What to Watch Next
SPY 756–757 is Tuesday’s high, and premarket sits above it at about 760.9. A pullback that holds this Zone is the reaction we’d want. If price slips back under it, the gap can fill toward Tuesday’s 754.35 close and the 752–753 Zone (Tuesday’s open and low).
QQQ 688–689 is Tuesday’s high, and premarket is just under it at about 687.6. Acceptance above it is the confirmation we’d need; 683–684 held Tuesday’s retest. A gap after a big overnight reversal is a question, not an answer. Our guide to using premarket data to prepare for the day shows how we turn these numbers into a plan, and yesterday’s premarket brief has the election-day setup. The latest brief always lives on our stock market today page.
Risks: ADP at 8:15, ISM Services at 10:00, Qualcomm and Arm tonight, the Bank of England and jobless claims Thursday, and the jobs report Friday. No alignment, no trade.
FAQ
Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate. Futures fell first, with S&P 500 futures about 1.2% lower around midnight ET, then reversed. By 7:45 AM ET S&P 500 futures were up about 0.9%, Dow futures about 1.6% and Russell 2000 futures about 1.4%.
Datadog beat on third-quarter revenue ($1.20 billion, up 35%) and non-GAAP EPS ($0.81), but guided fourth-quarter revenue to $1.19 billion to $1.20 billion, about flat with the quarter it just reported. The stock was down about 17% before the open at 7:45 AM ET.
ADP private employment for October is out at 8:15 AM ET, with consensus about 65,000 to 70,000 after 90,000. ISM Services for October is out at 10:00 AM ET, with consensus about 54.7 after 54.9. No Fed speakers are confirmed.
The upper Zone is 756 to 757 (Tuesday’s high) and the lower Zone is 752 to 753 (Tuesday’s open and low). SPY was about 760.9 before the open, above the upper Zone. These are places to watch for a reaction, not entries.
Sources: Nasdaq.com premarket quotes (7:42–7:45 AM ET); Yahoo Finance; TipRanks; TheStreet; Saxo; KuCoin; Datadog, AMD and Super Micro releases and SEC filings; Reuters; CoinCentral; StockStory; Nation’s Restaurant News; EBC; Arm investor relations. Featured image: AI-edited from a photo of the U.S. Capitol (Wikimedia Commons). Premarket moves are approximate and change before the open.
Education only. Not financial advice.
