Monday, November 2, 2026 · 5:00 PM ET · Shahryar Rahmani, MTC Desk
Oil plunges on Iran peace hopes and most of the market went up with it, but a fresh tech sell-off pulled the S&P 500 down 0.51%. Eight of 11 sectors closed higher; Technology (−2.94%) and Energy (−3.93%) were the drag.
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Hey, I’m Shah, your host, and this is MTC Radio. Today looked red on the screen, but most of the market actually went up.
So here’s what happened. Oil fell hard, about seven and a half percent, down to around ninety-six dollars a barrel. The reason was hope for a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. And cheaper oil is good news for a lot of businesses. Shops, factories, anyone who ships things. So eight of the eleven sectors in the S&P 500 finished green.
Now, here’s the thing. The S&P 500 still closed down about half a percent. Why? Tech. Chip stocks got sold, and tech is such a big piece of the index that it can pull the whole number down on its own. The Nasdaq lost about one percent. The Dow, which has less tech in it, actually finished up a bit.
And the day had two halves. In the morning, stocks were up nicely, close to one percent. Then they faded all afternoon and closed near the lows. That fade matters. I’ll come back to it.
So, the stories that mattered. First, tech and chips. Oracle fell almost nine percent after it said it wants to raise around twenty billion dollars, part stock, part bonds, to pay for its AI build-out. Intel and AMD each dropped more than seven percent. Micron was green before the open and still closed down almost six. When a whole group turns, the single names follow.
Second, the economic data. The factory survey from ISM came in at fifty-five and a half. Anything above fifty means factories are growing, and this was better than expected. Even better, the prices factories pay for their inputs cooled off. That’s the line I care about for inflation. Construction spending was weak, though, mostly because home building dropped.
Third, earnings. IDEXX Laboratories beat and raised its outlook, and the stock jumped about twenty-two percent. And after the bell, Palantir reported revenue up ninety-six percent from a year ago, well above what analysts expected, and it raised its outlook for the year. In the first few minutes after hours, the stock was about flat. Apple reports tonight too, but its numbers weren’t out yet when we recorded this.
So how am I reading it? This morning our bias was simple: a bounce inside a pullback, until it proves otherwise. We had a zone on SPY, the fund that tracks the S&P 500, at about seven sixty-one to seven sixty-two, where Friday’s selling started. Price poked through it around ten thirty, didn’t hold, and turned right back down. That was the reaction. Then a lower high, with the Nasdaq agreeing. That was the confirmation. And anyone who chased that first push higher bought the high of the day. A touch of a zone isn’t acceptance. That’s the lesson.
What am I watching tomorrow? The midterm elections run all day, so expect some noise. Job openings data at ten in the morning. And AMD reports after the close, right after today’s chip sell-off. On the charts, I’m watching SPY from seven sixty-one to seven sixty-four, where today’s bounce failed, and seven fifty to seven fifty-two below, Friday’s low and today’s close. On the Nasdaq side, Friday’s low is now overhead. Places to watch for a reaction. Not places to jump in blind.
That’s the show. We trade live four days a week, Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. If you want to sit in with us, you know where to find us. This is education, not financial advice. No alignment, no trade.
The day had two halves. Stocks rallied into late morning, with the S&P 500 up about 1% at 10:42 AM ET, then faded all afternoon and closed near the lows. The Dow held on to a 0.41% gain; the Nasdaq lost 1.07%.
Chips led the slide. Oracle fell 8.76% after laying out a roughly $20 billion stock-and-bond raise, Intel (−8.80%) extended last week’s losses and AMD (−7.52%) slid as investors rotated out of tech before Tuesday’s midterms.
The macro news was friendlier. ISM Manufacturing rose to 55.5, above the 54.6 expected, with input prices cooling, and the 10-year yield eased to about 4.91%. After the bell, Palantir beat on revenue and raised its outlook.
The Closing Bell
| Index | Close | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,541.40 | −0.51% | Tech outweighed gains in 8 of 11 sectors |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,164.32 | −1.07% | Chips and software led the drop |
| Nasdaq 100 | 27,989.82 | −1.39% | Worst of the major indexes |
| Dow Jones | 51,983.98 | +0.41% | Helped by consumer and financial names |
| Russell 2000 | 2,805.88 | −0.21% | About flat (index level per Yahoo Finance) |
What Drove The Day
Oil. WTI crude fell about 7.6% to $96.18 and Brent dropped to about $104 on hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal (Yahoo Finance, Reuters). Cheaper fuel lifts the outlook for companies that buy energy or move goods, and it eases one of the inflation worries.
The tech and chip sell-off. Investors moved money out of tech ahead of the midterms and worried again about AI spending. Oracle (−8.76%) plans to raise about $10 billion in stock and $10 billion in bonds to fund its AI build-out. Intel (−8.80%) kept falling after last week’s weak forecast, and AMD (−7.52%) slid a day before its own report. Micron lost 5.78% after being up about 2% before the open (7:55 AM ET).
IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX) +21.85%. Revenue rose 10% to $1.214 billion, comparable EPS of $3.96 beat the roughly $3.81 expected, and IDEXX raised its 2026 EPS outlook to $14.96–$15.16 (SEC 8-K). It was up about 6% before the open (7:55 AM ET) and kept climbing.
Check Point (CHKP) −6.98%. Revenue slipped 1% to $669.8 million, a touch under the $672 million expected, and the CEO said the recovery is taking longer than anticipated. It closed near its premarket level (about −7% at 7:55 AM ET).
Inovio (INO) +213.75% to $1.89 after the FDA granted accelerated approval for VOCERYQ, its treatment for a rare airway disease. It closed well below its premarket price of about $2.20 (7:55 AM ET). Amazon (+2.20%) bucked the tech selling, while Apple slipped nearly 2% before its report.
Sectors: Money Left Oil and Chips
Consumer Discretionary led at +2.39%, followed by Financials (+1.82%), Materials (+1.73%), Consumer Staples (+1.60%) and Industrials (+1.40%). Real Estate (+1.11%), Utilities (+0.58%) and Communication Services (+0.38%) also rose. Health Care slipped 0.12%, Technology fell 2.94% and Energy dropped 3.93%; the semiconductor ETF (SMH) lost 2.71%. The one reason: cheaper oil helps fuel buyers and hurts producers, while tech was being sold for its own reasons. Our guide to bull vs bear markets explains why a red index can hide a mostly green day.
Rates, Dollar and Commodities
| Asset | Close | One line |
|---|---|---|
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.91% | Down about 3 basis points (U.S. Treasury) |
| WTI crude | $96.18 (−7.6%) | Iran peace hopes |
| Brent crude | about $104 | Same story |
| Gold | about $3,956 (+1.5%) | Higher on the day |
| Bitcoin | about $76,800 | Under $77,000 |
| Dollar index | about 101.6 | Little changed (per Finviz) |
Economic Data Today
| Time (ET) | Release | Consensus | Prior | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9:45 AM | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct, final) | 56.0 (flash) | 55.9 | 54.9 |
| 10:00 AM | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 54.6 | 54.5 | 55.5 |
| 10:00 AM | Construction spending (Sep) | +0.3% | +2.0% (revised, single source) | −1.9% |
ISM Manufacturing came in at 55.5 against 54.6 expected (Verified Investing and Yahoo Finance; one calendar had 54.7). Above 50 means factories are growing. Prices paid, what factories pay for inputs, cooled to 75.2 from 77.9, which is the better mix for inflation. See how inflation reports move the stock market for why that line matters.
Construction spending fell 1.9% in September against about +0.3% expected, after an upwardly revised +2.0% in August. Residential spending dropped 5.5%. The final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 54.9, under its 56.0 flash reading (per Yahoo Finance).
Earnings After the Close
Palantir (PLTR) reported revenue of $2.313 billion, up 96%, against about $2.17 billion expected. U.S. commercial revenue jumped 148% to $984 million. It raised its 2026 revenue outlook to $8.530–$8.534 billion, above the roughly $8.2 billion analysts had, and guided fourth-quarter revenue to $2.649–$2.653 billion. The stock closed down 3.13% and was about flat in early after-hours trading (4:26 PM ET).
onsemi (ON) posted revenue of $1.722 billion, up 11%, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.90, above the roughly $1.70 billion and $0.88 MarketBeat lists as consensus. It guided fourth-quarter revenue to $1.715–$1.815 billion. Shares were about 5% to 6% lower after hours (4:26–4:30 PM ET), with no clear reason in the sources yet.
Vertex (VRTX) grew revenue 12% to $3.44 billion and raised its 2026 revenue outlook to $13.15–$13.25 billion; the stock was about flat after hours (4:26 PM ET). Diamondback Energy (FANG) earned an adjusted $5.86 a share against about $5.60 expected (per StockStory) and raised its base dividend 7.3% to $1.18; shares were up about 1.5% after hours (4:26–4:30 PM ET). Apple was due to report after the bell; its numbers were not in our sources at 4:35 PM ET, so we cover them in tomorrow’s premarket brief.
What to Watch Next
This morning’s premarket brief flagged SPY 761–762 as the place the bounce had to prove itself. SPY touched 763.78 at 10:27 AM ET, could not hold above the Zone, and faded to close at 752.15. QQQ did the same at its 698–701 Zone and then broke Friday’s low (683–684) in the last hour.
For Tuesday, the Zones to watch for a reaction are SPY 761–764 above (today’s rejection area) and SPY 750–752 below (Friday’s low and today’s close). On QQQ, 683–684 is now overhead and 680–681 is today’s low. We want SPY and QQQ to agree before trusting any move. Our guide to using premarket data to prepare for the day shows how we build these levels.
Calendar (ET): the midterm elections run all day Tuesday, JOLTS job openings are out at 10:00 AM, and AMD reports after the close. ADP (8:15 AM) and ISM Services (10:00 AM) follow on Wednesday, and the October jobs report lands at 8:30 AM Friday. Risks: election-night swings, more AI-spending headlines, and the oil price if peace talks stall. No alignment, no trade.
FAQ
The S&P 500 fell 0.51% because technology and chip stocks sold off, even though eight of 11 sectors rose. Oil dropped about 7.6% on U.S.-Iran peace hopes, which helped consumer, financial and industrial stocks, while Oracle, Intel and AMD led tech lower.
WTI crude fell about 7.6% to roughly $96 a barrel on hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal, which eased fears about oil supply. Brent fell to about $104.
The October ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5 from 54.5, above the 54.6 expected. Prices paid eased to 75.2 from 77.9, so factories grew faster while input costs cooled.
Palantir reported third-quarter revenue of $2.313 billion, up 96%, against about $2.17 billion expected, and raised its 2026 revenue outlook to $8.530 to $8.534 billion. The stock was about flat in early after-hours trading (4:26 PM ET).
Sources: Yahoo Finance; Reuters (via MarketScreener); CNBC (via StockTitan); The Motley Fool; Nasdaq.com official closes and 1-minute prices; Finviz; U.S. Treasury daily yield curve; company releases (Palantir, onsemi, Vertex, Diamondback) and SEC 8-K filings (IDEXX, Inovio); Check Point release; Verified Investing; InvestingLive; StockStory and MarketBeat (single-source estimates, attributed). After-hours moves are approximate and carry their time.
Education only. Not financial advice.
