Thursday, August 13, 2026 · 8:45 AM ET · MTC Market Intelligence
The second inflation number of the week is the one that matters now. July PPI hits at 8:30 AM ET, and it lands into a tape that already got what it wanted from CPI — Wednesday’s print came in on forecast, the S&P closed up 0.3% at 7,748.50, and the relief carried into this morning with futures pointing modestly higher: S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq-100 +0.5% leading, Dow +0.1%. That’s the same shape as yesterday — growth out front while the market waits to see if the disinflation story holds one more day. Here’s the part that keeps this honest: this is not a rate-cut tape. The market has moved to pricing essentially zero more Fed cuts in 2026 — roughly 89% now expect the Fed to stay put or lean the other way — because inflation has run above the 2% target for years and AI-infrastructure spend keeps price pressure sticky. So PPI isn’t a formality. It feeds the Fed’s preferred PCE gauge, and a hot number puts the hike conversation right back on the table even after a cooperative CPI. Under the surface it’s still an AI-and-earnings tape. Applied Materials (AMAT) reports after the close near $548 with the Street looking for roughly $9.0B in revenue — the read on chip-equipment demand into the back half. The premarket movers are speculative and earnings-driven: GXAI up big on record Q2 revenue and a buyback, small-caps swinging hard on their prints. VIX is calm at 15.28, WTI is still firm at $82.13 with the Strait of Hormuz unresolved, and the 10-year sits near 4.70% — the same two counterweights, oil and yields, that can flip the mood. SPX holds the story between 7,760 overhead as the reclaim line and 7,700 as the floor that has to hold. Don’t front-run the number. Let PPI print, watch the 10-year’s reaction, and trade the level — not the headline. No alignment, no trade.
Market Snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (prior close) | 7,748.50 | +0.3% | Closed Wednesday at a fresh high zone after CPI landed in line — the relief rally did its job. This morning futures point modestly higher into PPI. The record area is right overhead, and 7,760 is the reclaim line the open is leaning on. The level, not the relief, decides whether it holds. |
| Nasdaq Composite (prior close) | 26,588.49 | +0.5% | Wednesday’s leader as rate-sensitive growth got the cooler-inflation read it wanted. Nasdaq-100 futures +0.5% again this morning — the same leadership shape into the second print. Watch whether tech holds the front through the cash open or fades once PPI is in hand. |
| Dow (prior close) | 53,770.27 | -0.04% | Essentially flat Wednesday — the quiet participant while growth led. Up about 0.1% this morning. On an inflation-data day the cyclical side takes part but doesn’t drive; the Dow follows the tech tape, it doesn’t set it. A steady, unremarkable read into the number. |
| S&P 500 Futures | — | +0.2% | Modestly green ahead of PPI — measured, not euphoric. A small gap into the number says the tape is comfortable but not committing before the data. Real conviction shows up only if the cash session holds gains after the print, not in the pre-8:30 drift. Wait for the reaction. |
| Nasdaq-100 Futures | — | +0.5% | The leader again, growth out front into the second inflation read. Outpacing the S&P is the textbook cooler-inflation shape, and the AI-earnings names underneath keep the bid. The size is the tell for where risk appetite sits — watch it hold or fade into the open once PPI hits. |
| VIX | 15.28 | steady | Calm and holding low into the print. A settled VIX the morning of PPI says the market isn’t bracing for a shock — the immediate fear from earlier in the week has drained. Low absolute level is comfort, but comfort into firm oil and elevated yields is exactly when discipline matters most. |
| WTI Crude | 82.13 | firm | Still the wildcard the data can’t retire. Crude holds elevated with the US-Iran Strait of Hormuz standoff unresolved — the one input that keeps the inflation story, and the Fed’s hike camp, alive even after a cooperative CPI. Firm oil is why this week’s relief isn’t a full all-clear. |
| 10-Yr Yield | 4.70% | watch | Holding near a monthly high even as CPI cooled — the tell to watch through PPI. If the disinflation read were fully trusted, yields would ease; instead they’re parked up here, which says the bond market isn’t sold. Watch the 10-year’s reaction to the print first — it tells before equities do. |
| Bitcoin | 64,200 | steady | Holding near $64K as risk appetite stays firm into the print. Constructive but not leading — resistance still sits up near the $67K zone where prior rallies stalled. Tracking the risk-on tone without driving it. Watch whether a cooperative PPI lets it build or it stalls at resistance again. |
Charts to Watch
Daily candle charts with moving averages for the index proxies and today’s standout mover. Source: Finviz.
Performance at a Glance
Overnight & Global Markets
The week’s inflation story gets its second and final chapter this morning. July PPI prints at 8:30 AM ET into a tape that already banked a win — Wednesday’s CPI came in on forecast, the S&P closed up 0.3% at 7,748.50 in the record zone, and the relief carried overnight: S&P futures +0.2%, Nasdaq-100 +0.5% leading, Dow +0.1%. Same shape as yesterday, growth out front while the market waits to see if disinflation holds one more day. But the regime underneath hasn’t softened. This is a no-cut tape now — the market has moved to pricing essentially zero more Fed cuts in 2026, roughly 89% expecting the Fed to hold or lean hawkish, because inflation has run above the 2% target for years and AI-infrastructure spend keeps prices sticky. That makes PPI more than a formality: it feeds the Fed’s preferred PCE gauge, and a hot number puts the hike conversation right back on the table even after a cooperative CPI. The counterweights are the same two that have shadowed the tape all week — WTI still firm at $82.13 with the Strait of Hormuz unresolved, and the 10-year holding near 4.70%. If the disinflation read were fully trusted, yields would be easing; instead they’re parked at a monthly high, the bond market withholding full agreement with the equity calm. Under the index it’s still an AI-and-earnings tape: Applied Materials (AMAT) reports after the close near $548 on roughly $9.0B expected revenue, the read on chip-equipment demand into the back half, while speculative small-caps swing hard on their own prints. The takeaway: the tape is comfortable, but comfort into a still-firm oil-and-yield backdrop is a reason for discipline, not conviction. SPX holds the story between 7,760 overhead and 7,700 below. Let PPI print, watch the 10-year, and trade the reaction — not the number you’re guessing at before 8:30.
MAJOR HEADLINES AND CATALYSTS
Top Premarket Stories
- July PPI hits at 8:30 AM ET — the week’s second inflation read and the one that matters most now. CPI landed in line Wednesday and the tape carried the relief higher, but PPI feeds the Fed’s preferred PCE gauge, so a hot number can reopen the hike debate even after a cooperative CPI. Futures are modestly green into it: S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq-100 +0.5%. The reaction, not the pre-print drift, is the trade.
- This is a no-cut tape. The market has moved to pricing essentially zero more Fed cuts in 2026 — roughly 89% now expect the Fed to hold or lean hawkish — with inflation still above the 2% target and AI-infrastructure spend keeping prices sticky. A cooperative PPI doesn’t change that; a hot one hardens it. The rate path is the backdrop under every level today.
- Oil is the wildcard the data can’t retire. WTI is holding firm at $82.13 with the US-Iran Strait of Hormuz standoff still unresolved — the one input that keeps the inflation story, and the Fed’s hike camp, alive even on a calm morning. Watch the Hormuz headlines; a sharp crude move is the thing that can flip the mood before PPI is even digested.
Stock-Specific
- Applied Materials (AMAT) is the marquee earnings read, reporting after the close near $548 with the Street looking for roughly $9.0B in revenue and adjusted EPS near $3.40. As the largest chip-equipment name, it’s a direct line into AI-capex and back-half semi demand. Watch the guidance more than the print — the forward number is what moves a stock this size and sets tomorrow’s semi tone.
- The premarket movers are speculative and earnings-driven. GXAI is ripping on record Q2 revenue and a buyback, small media and tech names are gapping hard, while a couple of post-earnings names are getting sold despite beats as traders focus on balance-sheet risk. Low-float pops cut both ways — real catalysts, but the size means chase-risk is high. Trade the reaction at the level, not the gap.
Global and Macro
- Japan PPI eased to 7.2% overnight, undershooting expectations — a small global data point that fits the disinflation-hope narrative but doesn’t move the US Fed math. Weekly jobless claims also print at 8:30 alongside PPI; a soft labor read layered on cooling inflation is the combination bulls want, while sticky prices plus firm jobs keeps the hold-or-hike camp in charge.
- Cross-asset tone is calm but not confirming: VIX at 15.28, Bitcoin steady near $64K, futures modestly green — yet oil holds $82.13 and the 10-year sits near 4.70%. The equity screen says comfortable; bonds and crude are only half-agreeing. Same setup as yesterday — the stock tape leaning risk-on while yields and oil keep the inflation question open into the print.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
S&P 500 Key Levels
- SPX 7,760 is the reclaim line. Wednesday closed 7,748.50, and with futures modestly green the open sits right under this first resistance in the record zone. Clear and hold 7,760 in the cash session after PPI and the highs stay in play toward 7,800. Until it goes, treat the tape as range-bound into the number — an open into resistance still has to prove it can hold.
- SPX 7,700 is the line that has to hold. It’s the round-number floor just under Wednesday’s close and the level that keeps the constructive structure intact. Hold it and the disinflation bounce stays alive. Lose 7,700 and the tone shifts — the first sign the market is fading the inflation story rather than trusting it, especially with oil firm and yields elevated.
- Below, 7,660 is the downside checkpoint. It’s where a real fade would find its next test and where the constructive read would officially be in question. On a PPI day, losing 7,700 is the warning and a break of 7,660 is the confirmation the tape didn’t like the number. Watch it if the open can’t hold its gains after 8:30.
Sector and Sentiment
- Leadership tell: Nasdaq-100 +0.5% versus Dow +0.1%, with semis and AI-hardware names leading under the surface into AMAT tonight. Growth out front is the healthy disinflation shape — if that leadership holds through the print, the constructive read has legs. If tech fades back toward the Dow’s pace after PPI, the calm was a pause, not a risk-on turn.
- Sentiment tell: VIX calm at 15.28 but the 10-year holding near 4.70%. Low volatility plus a bond market that won’t ease is the subtle disagreement to respect into the number. The equity screen is comfortable; the yield tape is not fully on board. Calm VIX on a data morning is a reason to trade the level with discipline, not to assume the all-clear.
TODAY’S ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Key Releases (ET)
- 8:30 AM ET is the whole morning: July PPI plus weekly jobless claims land together. PPI feeds the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge, so it’s the number that either confirms or complicates the cooler-CPI read from Wednesday. Watch the core (ex food and energy) figure and the 10-year’s immediate reaction — that’s the real-time read on how the no-cut, maybe-hike debate is leaning now.
- The subplot is still oil. With the US and Iran unresolved over a Strait of Hormuz reopening, any concrete headline swings crude — and crude is the inflation input the cooler CPI couldn’t neutralize. WTI at $82.13 shows it’s still firm. A sharp oil move is the one thing capable of overriding a friendly PPI and pulling the hike camp back into the conversation.
Earnings Today
- Applied Materials (AMAT) headlines after the close near $548, with the Street around $9.0B in revenue and adjusted EPS near $3.40 — the key read on chip-equipment demand and the AI-capex cycle into the back half. The guide matters more than the print for a name this size. A strong forward number extends the semi leadership; a cautious one puts a dent in the group’s momentum.
- Earnings season is winding down and the macro is back in the driver’s seat, but the slate still offers clean single-name setups — record-growth small-caps getting paid, balance-sheet-risk names getting sold even on beats. Trade the individual stories on their merit; the index is taking its cue from PPI and the 10-year today, not from any one earnings line.
PREMARKET PLAYBOOK
Key Levels
- SPX 7,760 — the reclaim line. Wednesday closed 7,748.50, and with futures modestly green the open sits right under this first resistance in the record zone. Clear and hold 7,760 in the cash session after PPI and the highs come back into play toward 7,800. Until it goes, the tape is range-bound into the number — react to the reclaim and hold, don’t chase an open into resistance before 8:30 is digested.
- SPX 7,700 — the line that has to hold. The round-number floor just under Wednesday’s close that keeps the constructive structure intact. Hold it and the disinflation read stays alive. Lose 7,700 and the tone shifts — the first sign the tape is fading the inflation story rather than trusting it, with oil firm and the 10-year elevated overhead. This is the level that tells you if the calm is real.
- SPX 7,660 — the downside checkpoint. Where a real fade finds its next test and the constructive read is officially in question. Losing 7,700 is the warning; a break of 7,660 is the confirmation the tape didn’t like PPI. On a day the market is waiting on one number, this is the line that says it went the wrong way.
Bull case: PPI comes in cool-to-in-line, the disinflation story holds, and rate-sensitive growth keeps leading. SPX clears and holds 7,760 to put the record highs back in play toward 7,800, the 10-year finally eases off 4.70% as the market accepts a second friendly print, and AMAT’s guide tonight extends the semi leadership. Oil headlines stay quiet, calm VIX plus a settling bond market lets the tape turn comfort into follow-through rather than a one-week pause.
Bear case: PPI runs hot, PCE-feed fears reignite, and the no-cut tape hardens toward a maybe-hike one. The 10-year climbs off 4.70%, oil spikes on a Hormuz headline, and SPX loses 7,700 as the market decides the cooler CPI was the exception, not the trend. The bounce fades toward 7,660, firm crude and sticky yields expose an extended tape with earnings season nearly done and little left to lean on but the macro.
Premarket Movers
Gainers
| GXAI | Gaxos.ai | record Q2 + buyback | Leading the speculative movers on record Q2 revenue and a buyback announcement — a real catalyst on a small float, which means the move is fast and two-sided. The clearest expression of small-cap risk appetite this morning. Quality of the story is decent, but the premarket size makes it a reaction trade, not a chase. |
| SFHG | Success Holding Group | momentum pop | Gapping hard premarket on speculative momentum — a low-float mover with more tape energy than fundamental catalyst behind it. The kind of name that shows risk appetite is alive in the small-cap corner but carries real reversal risk into the open. Watch it as a sentiment read, not a setup to lean on. |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | earnings tonight | Steady near $548 into its after-close report — the quality name on the board and the real semi read of the day. Not a premarket pop but the setup that matters most for the AI-hardware complex. A strong guide extends the group’s leadership; a soft one caps it. The forward number is the whole trade. |
Laggards
| BOXL | Boxlight | -19% | Sliding sharply premarket despite an earnings beat, as the market focuses on negative equity and debt rather than the top line. A single-name balance-sheet story, not a broad-tape signal — but a clean illustration of a no-cut regime punishing leverage even on good headline numbers. A laggard to note, not a fade to chase. |
| STUB | StubHub | -18% | Down hard on an EPS miss — the market selling the bottom-line shortfall despite the recognizable name. A reminder that with the macro in charge, a real miss gets punished fast and there’s little cushion for disappointment. Watch whether it stabilizes at the open or keeps bleeding once the premarket pop-and-drop settles. |
Risks Into the Open
- Primary risk: a hot PPI reopening the hike debate. PPI feeds the Fed’s preferred PCE gauge, and with the market already pricing essentially zero more cuts in 2026, a hot number pushes the conversation from hold toward hike. The danger is being long into 8:30 as if the cooler CPI settled the rate path. Watch the 10-year’s reaction first — yields that jump on the print are the early all-clear-canceled signal.
- Secondary risk: an oil shock from Hormuz. The US and Iran remain unresolved over a Strait of Hormuz reopening, and WTI is holding firm at $82.13. A sharp crude spike puts inflation — and the Fed’s hike camp — right back in the conversation regardless of what PPI shows. It’s the one input the CPI print couldn’t neutralize, and the single headline most capable of overriding a friendly number.
- Tertiary risk: chasing the speculative movers into the gap. GXAI, SFHG and the small-cap pops are real catalysts, but low-float premarket moves of this size cut both ways — the momentum that powers the gap can reverse it in minutes once the print is priced. On a macro-driven day, single names move violently on their own stories. Size for the volatility, trade the reaction at the level, and don’t confuse a big gap with a clean entry.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where are S&P 500 futures trading ahead of the open?
Ahead of Thursday, August 13, 2026, S&P 500 futures are at 7,748.50 (+0.3%), with the VIX near 15.28. The second inflation number of the week is the one that matters now. July PPI hits at 8:30 AM ET, and it lands into a tape that already got what it wanted from CPI — Wednesday’s print came in on forecast, the S&P closed up 0.3% at 7,748.50, and the relief carried into this morning with futures pointing modestly higher: S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq-100 +0.5% leading, Dow +0.1%. That’s the same shape as yesterday — growth out front while the market waits to see if the disinflation story holds one more day. Here’s the part that keeps this honest: this is not a rate-cut tape. The market has moved to pricing essentially zero more Fed cuts in 2026 — roughly 89% now expect the Fed to stay put or lean the other way — because inflation has run above the 2% target for years and AI-infrastructure spend keeps price pressure sticky. So PPI isn’t a formality. It feeds the Fed’s preferred PCE gauge, and a hot number puts the hike conversation right back on the table even after a cooperative CPI. Under the surface it’s still an AI-and-earnings tape. Applied Materials (AMAT) reports after the close near $548 with the Street looking for roughly $9.0B in revenue — the read on chip-equipment demand into the back half. The premarket movers are speculative and earnings-driven: GXAI up big on record Q2 revenue and a buyback, small-caps swinging hard on their prints. VIX is calm at 15.28, WTI is still firm at $82.13 with the Strait of Hormuz unresolved, and the 10-year sits near 4.70% — the same two counterweights, oil and yields, that can flip the mood. SPX holds the story between 7,760 overhead as the reclaim line and 7,700 as the floor that has to hold. Don’t front-run the number. Let PPI print, watch the 10-year’s reaction, and trade the level — not the headline. No alignment, no trade.
What is the biggest catalyst for the market today?
July PPI hits at 8:30 AM ET — the week’s second inflation read and the one that matters most now. CPI landed in line Wednesday and the tape carried the relief higher, but PPI feeds the Fed’s preferred PCE gauge, so a hot number can reopen the hike debate even after a cooperative CPI. Futures are modestly green into it: S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq-100 +0.5%. The reaction, not the pre-print drift, is the trade.
What key levels should traders watch today?
SPX 7,760 — the reclaim line. Wednesday closed 7,748.50, and with futures modestly green the open sits right under this first resistance in the record zone. Clear and hold 7,760 in the cash session after PPI and the highs come back into play toward 7,800. Until it goes, the tape is range-bound into the number — react to the reclaim and hold, don’t chase an open into resistance before 8:30 is digested. SPX 7,700 — the line that has to hold. The round-number floor just under Wednesday’s close that keeps the constructive structure intact. Hold it and the disinflation read stays alive. Lose 7,700 and the tone shifts — the first sign the tape is fading the inflation story rather than trusting it, with oil firm and the 10-year elevated overhead. This is the level that tells you if the calm is real. SPX 7,660 — the downside checkpoint. Where a real fade finds its next test and the constructive read is officially in question. Losing 7,700 is the warning; a break of 7,660 is the confirmation the tape didn’t like PPI. On a day the market is waiting on one number, this is the line that says it went the wrong way.
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Apply for the Incubator → Learn moreSources: CNBC | Yahoo Finance | Benzinga | Investing.com | TheStreet – August 13, 2026 (8:15-8:45 AM ET window). For educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
