Thursday, August 13, 2026 · 4:30 PM ET · MTC Market Close
The market got a second cool inflation number in as many days, and it pressed the record higher — but it left a mark right at the round number that everyone was watching. July PPI came in flat, unchanged on the month against a +0.2% forecast, and with oil sliding nearly 3% the disinflation story got a fresh coat of paint. The S&P 500 rode it to a record close near 7,799, up about 0.65%, and traded above 7,800 for the first time ever intraday — then couldn’t hold it into the bell. The Nasdaq led again, up 0.81% to roughly 26,803 as the chip complex did the heavy lifting: Sandisk ripped 15%, Micron added about 5.6%, and the semiconductor index gained near 1.8%. The Dow lagged with a 0.13% gain to about 53,840, and the Russell 2000 tacked on 0.68% to its own record as easing rate-hike fear lifted the rate-sensitive names. Here is the part the record hides. The S&P touched 7,800 and got rejected — a record close that is still, technically, below the line it just tagged. Gold slipped to about $4,448 and Bitcoin eased to roughly $63,500, so neither of the market’s two favorite hedges confirmed the new high. And the reason oil fell is not all good news: the IEA cut 2026 demand by 1.6 million barrels a day, which is a growth worry wearing a disinflation costume. The tell most people will miss: two cool prints in a row bought the record, but the tape couldn’t close the deal at 7,800, and Applied Materials reports after the bell with an 11% move priced in — the AI-capex read that either extends this or ends it. The record is real. The confirmation is not.
The Closing Bell
| Instrument | Close | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,798.99 | +0.65% | A fresh record close, but read the tape carefully: the index traded above 7,800 for the first time ever intraday and then closed just under it at 7,798.99. That makes 7,800 the cleanest line on the chart — the level the rally tagged but could not defend into the bell. Hold above it tomorrow and the breakout is real with 7,850 in view; get rejected again and today’s record looks like a test of the ceiling rather than a break through it. |
| Nasdaq | 26,803.30 | +0.81% | The leader again, and the reason is one word: chips. Sandisk ripped 15%, Micron added about 5.6%, and the semiconductor index gained near 1.8%. When a flat PPI takes rate pressure off and the memory and equipment names catch a bid, the Nasdaq leads — and it did, decisively, for a second straight session. |
| Dow Jones | 53,839.99 | +0.13% | Up about 70 points but the clear laggard, held back by the same light tech weighting that has it trailing all week. The blue chips joined the record-day tone without the semiconductor horsepower driving the Nasdaq — a modest, orderly gain rather than a leadership move. |
| Russell 2000 | Record | +0.68% | Small caps notched their own record close as a second cool inflation print firmed the case for the Fed to hold rather than hike. Falling rate-hike fear and a steadier bond market are exactly the backdrop this rate-sensitive group wants, and the breadth in small caps is a quiet plus under the mega-cap-led tape. |
| VIX | 14.44 | -0.8% | The fear gauge eased again to the mid-14s as the second inflation event of the week passed without a shock. Low and falling vol on a record close confirms the risk-on tone — but it also means there is very little fear premium left to cushion a disappointment, and Applied Materials’ after-hours print is the next place one could show up. |
| 10-Year Yield | 4.65% | -3 bp | Eased for a second session as the flat PPI let the bond market lean into the cooling-inflation read. A softer 10-year is the quiet green light under the growth leadership — as long as yields drift lower rather than reprice higher, the high-multiple chip and small-cap names have room to run. Level approximate as the bond tape settled into the close. |
| WTI Crude | $81.04 | -2.7% | Fell hard, down nearly 3% to just above $81, as the IEA cut its 2026 global demand forecast by 1.6 million barrels a day on high prices and shipping disruptions. Cheaper oil is disinflationary and helped today’s rally — but a demand-driven drop is a growth worry in disguise, and that is the part the record close is not pricing. |
| Gold | $4,447.60 | -0.5% | Slipped from its record, easing about half a percent on the cooler inflation read. Notable on a record equity day: gold did not confirm the new high. When the market’s favorite inflation hedge steps back while stocks push higher, it is one of two witnesses that failed to sign off on the move. |
| Bitcoin | $63,523 | -0.4% | Eased to roughly $63,500, a quiet laggard for a second straight session. Crypto did not join the equity record, drifting slightly lower as capital chased the semiconductor trade instead. The second of the two hedges that refused to confirm — no breakdown, but no risk-appetite green light either. |
Today’s Charts
Daily candlestick charts with 20/50/200-day moving averages — the index majors, the day’s biggest mover on each side, and the leading sector ETF.
Charts: Finviz (daily). Levels and overlays update through the next session.
Sector Scoreboard
What Drove The Day
This was the confirmation day, and it delivered the number but not the close. July PPI landed at 8:30 AM unchanged on the month against a +0.2% Dow Jones forecast — a flat wholesale-inflation print that, stacked on Wednesday’s in-line CPI, gave the market two cool inflation reads in a row. Energy, food, and transportation prices fell, and crude slid nearly 3% to just above $81 after the IEA cut its 2026 demand forecast by 1.6 million barrels a day. The disinflation trade lit up: the S&P 500 pushed to a record and, for the first time in its history, traded above 7,800 intraday. Then it couldn’t hold. The index closed at 7,798.99, up about 0.65% — a record, but one that finished just below the round number it had just tagged. The Nasdaq led again with a 0.81% gain to roughly 26,803, powered by the chip complex: Sandisk surged 15%, Micron added about 5.6%, and the semiconductor index climbed near 1.8%. The Russell 2000 rose 0.68% to its own record as easing rate-hike fear lifted small caps, and the Dow lagged with a 0.13% gain to about 53,840. Under the hood, the leadership was clean risk-on — chips and rate-sensitive small caps out front, the 10-year easing to about 4.65%, and the VIX slipping to the mid-14s as the second binary event of the week cleared. But two things the record close papers over are worth naming. First, the rejection at 7,800: the market tagged the level everyone was watching and could not close above it, which turns 7,800 from a target into a test. Second, the hedges did not confirm — gold slipped to about $4,448 off its record and Bitcoin eased to roughly $63,500, so neither of the market’s two favorite insurance trades signed off on the new high. And the very next catalyst is already in the chamber: Applied Materials reports after the bell with the options market pricing an 11% move, an AI-capex read on the exact semiconductor buildout that drove today’s tape. Two cool prints bought the record. Whether it holds depends on a line the market couldn’t close above and an earnings print it hasn’t seen yet.
MAJOR HEADLINES AND CATALYSTS
Top Market-Moving Stories
- JULY PPI COMES IN FLAT, DISINFLATION TRADE EXTENDS (Day) – Wholesale prices were unchanged in July against a +0.2% forecast, with energy, food, and transportation prices falling. Stacked on Wednesday’s in-line CPI, it gave the market a second cool inflation read in a row, firmed Fed-hold expectations, and pushed the S&P to a fresh record.
- CHIPS LEAD AS SANDISK RIPS 15% (Day) – Sandisk surged about 15% and Micron added roughly 5.6%, driving the semiconductor index up near 1.8% and the Nasdaq to a 0.81% gain. With rate pressure off, the highest-beta corner of the tape did the heavy lifting for a second straight session.
- S&P TAGS 7,800 FOR THE FIRST TIME — THEN CAN’T HOLD IT (Day) – The index traded above 7,800 intraday for the first time in history and closed just under it at 7,798.99. The record is real, but the rejection at the round number turns 7,800 from a target into the line the breakout has to reclaim tomorrow.
- OIL DROPS NEARLY 3% ON IEA DEMAND CUT — THE CATCH (Day) – WTI fell to just above $81 after the IEA cut its 2026 global demand forecast by 1.6 million barrels a day. Cheaper oil helped the disinflation rally, but a demand-driven slide is a growth warning the record close is not pricing.
AFTER-HOURS EARNINGS SPOTLIGHT
Applied Materials Headlines the Post-Close Slate
- APPLIED MATERIALS (AMAT) – The marquee after-hours name and the most important print of the week. The semiconductor-equipment giant reports fiscal Q3 with consensus near $9.0 billion in revenue and about $3.38 EPS, and the options market is pricing an 11% move in either direction — nearly double its recent average. The tell is not the headline; it is the October-quarter WFE guide, the direct read on whether the AI-capex buildout that drove today’s chip rally still has runway.
- CEREBRAS (CBRS) SET THE CAUTIONARY TONE (Day) – Cerebras fell roughly 13-15% during the session after its Q2 revenue missed, a reminder that this tape still separates the AI names that deliver from the ones that stumble. It frames the AMAT read: strong guidance extends the semiconductor leadership; a soft outlook tests whether today’s chip rip was priced for perfection.
- THE READ – Today’s record was built on semiconductors, so a single after-hours guide now carries more weight than usual. AMAT’s October outlook is load-bearing for the chip trade and, by extension, for a Nasdaq-led tape. Whatever the reaction, tomorrow’s direction is a two-part test: the AMAT guide overnight and retail sales at 8:30 AM.
WHAT IT SETS UP FOR TOMORROW
Into Friday, AMAT, and Retail Sales
- AMAT’S GUIDE IS THE OVERNIGHT SWING FACTOR – With an 11% move priced in, Applied Materials’ October-quarter outlook either confirms the AI-capex buildout that led today’s chip rally or reintroduces the doubt Cerebras flagged. A strong WFE guide is the fastest way to push the S&P through 7,800 at the open; a soft one is the fastest way to reject it again.
- 7,800 IS THE LINE THE BREAKOUT HAS TO RECLAIM – The S&P tagged 7,800 and closed just under at 7,798.99. Clear and hold it Friday and the record run stays clean with 7,850 in view; get rejected a second time and today’s record looks like a ceiling test, with 7,783 and then 7,780 as the shelf to defend.
- RETAIL SALES AND CONSUMER SENTIMENT ROUND OUT THE WEEK – July retail sales print Friday at 8:30 AM (forecast about +0.3%), with import prices alongside, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment at 10:00 AM (forecast 54.1, down from 55.2). A soft consumer read into a falling-oil, softening-demand backdrop is the risk the record close is not weighing.
Winners & Losers
Winners
| SNDK | +15% | Sandisk led the entire market as the memory and storage complex caught a strong bid on the flat PPI and the risk-on chip trade. The clearest face of the day’s semiconductor leadership and the reason the Nasdaq led again. | |
| BIRK | +11% | Birkenstock jumped after a better-than-expected fiscal third quarter, a rare consumer-discretionary name near the top of the board and a clean beat that stood out on a chip-driven day. | |
| MU | +5.6% | Micron rose alongside Sandisk as the memory names led the semiconductor rally. With rate pressure easing and the AI-storage demand story intact, Micron rode the same tailwind that pushed the chip index up near 1.8%. |
Losers
| STUB | -20% | StubHub cratered after missing quarterly earnings forecasts, the single worst move on the board and a clean example of a tape that still sells misses hard even as the index makes a record. | |
| CBRS | -14% | Cerebras slid after its Q2 revenue missed, the cautionary AI-hardware note that set the tone for the Applied Materials print after the close. | |
| TPR | -8.8% | Tapestry fell on disappointing guidance despite beating on earnings, the beat-and-guide-down that got sold as capital stayed with the semiconductor leadership. |
What It Sets Up For Tomorrow
Levels Into Tomorrow
- S&P 500 7,800 – THE REJECTION LINE. Price tagged this level intraday for the first time ever and closed just below at 7,798.99. This is now the single line that defines the read: reclaim and hold 7,800 on the AMAT guide and a firm retail sales print, and the breakout is confirmed toward 7,850; fail here again and today’s record is a ceiling test, not a break.
- S&P 500 7,783 / 7,780 – THE DOWNSIDE SHELF. If 7,800 rejects a second time, 7,783 (Wednesday’s record close) is the first catch and 7,780 (the prior breakout shelf) the next. A soft AMAT guide or a weak retail sales print is the combination that would pull price back into the range it just tested the top of.
- S&P 500 7,850 – THE NEXT UPSIDE TARGET. Reclaim 7,800 and hold it, and the record run extends with 7,850 the next milestone. A strong AMAT outlook overnight, the 10-year holding near 4.65%, and the chip leadership intact is the setup that carries the tape through the round number it stalled at today.
Bull case: Applied Materials guides the October quarter well above consensus and confirms the AI-capex buildout is still accelerating. The chip leadership that drove today’s record extends, the S&P gaps through 7,800 at the open and holds it, and Friday’s retail sales print comes in firm enough to keep the soft-landing story intact. A softer 10-year near 4.65% and two cool inflation prints in the books let the Fed-hold narrative harden, small-cap breadth keeps improving, and the round-number rejection at 7,800 becomes a one-day pause rather than a ceiling. The record close becomes the base, and 7,850 comes into view.
Bear case: AMAT’s October guide disappoints — or merely meets a bar the 11% implied move says was priced for more — and the semiconductor trade that carried the tape stalls. The S&P gets rejected at 7,800 a second time, and a soft retail sales print stacked on a falling-oil, IEA-demand-cut backdrop reframes cheaper crude as a growth warning rather than a disinflation gift. Gold and Bitcoin, which already refused to confirm today’s high, get company as risk appetite cools. 7,800 caps the tape, price slips back through 7,783 toward the 7,780 shelf, and a record bought on two cool prints reveals it needed a third catalyst it didn’t get.
Risks Into Tomorrow
- A record that couldn’t close above 7,800 — The high is real, but be honest about the tape. The S&P tagged 7,800 for the first time in history and could not close above it, finishing at 7,798.99. A record close that sits just below the level it just tested is a market that got to the door but did not walk through it. That rejection matters because it turns a round-number target into a line the breakout now has to reclaim — and the two catalysts that decide it, the Applied Materials guide and Friday’s retail sales, both land before the market has a chance to consolidate. The danger in a record made on momentum is that the level it stalled at becomes the ceiling it can’t clear.
- The hedges didn’t confirm the high — The clearest tell on the day is not in the equity index — it is in what didn’t move with it. Gold slipped off its record to about $4,448 and Bitcoin eased to roughly $63,500 on a day stocks made a new high. When both of the market’s favorite hedges step back while the index pushes higher, it is two witnesses declining to sign off on the move. It does not invalidate the record, but it is the kind of non-confirmation that shows up before a stall more often than before a run. A high the safe-haven and the risk-asset hedge both ignore is a high built on one leg.
- Cheaper oil is a growth warning in disguise — The falling-oil story cut today’s way, and it deserves a second look. WTI dropped nearly 3% to just above $81, and the headline reason was not a supply flood — it was the IEA cutting its 2026 global demand forecast by 1.6 million barrels a day. Lower crude is genuinely disinflationary and it helped the PPI-driven rally, but a demand-driven slide is the oil market pricing a slower economy. The market took the disinflation and ignored the demand signal. Stack a soft retail sales print on Friday against that backdrop and the same cheaper oil that lifted the tape today starts reading as the growth worry it actually is.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did the S&P 500 close today?
On Thursday, August 13, 2026, the S&P 500 closed at 7,798.99 (+0.65%), with the VIX at 14.44. The market got a second cool inflation number in as many days, and it pressed the record higher — but it left a mark right at the round number that everyone was watching.
What drove the market today?
JULY PPI COMES IN FLAT, DISINFLATION TRADE EXTENDS (Day) – Wholesale prices were unchanged in July against a +0.2% forecast, with energy, food, and transportation prices falling. Stacked on Wednesday’s in-line CPI, it gave the market a second cool inflation read in a row, firmed Fed-hold expectations, and pushed the S&P to a fresh record.
What levels matter for tomorrow?
S&P 500 7,800 – THE REJECTION LINE. Price tagged this level intraday for the first time ever and closed just below at 7,798.99. This is now the single line that defines the read: reclaim and hold 7,800 on the AMAT guide and a firm retail sales print, and the breakout is confirmed toward 7,850; fail here again and today’s record is a ceiling test, not a break. S&P 500 7,783 / 7,780 – THE DOWNSIDE SHELF. If 7,800 rejects a second time, 7,783 (Wednesday’s record close) is the first catch and 7,780 (the prior breakout shelf) the next. A soft AMAT guide or a weak retail sales print is the combination that would pull price back into the range it just tested the top of. S&P 500 7,850 – THE NEXT UPSIDE TARGET. Reclaim 7,800 and hold it, and the record run extends with 7,850 the next milestone. A strong AMAT outlook overnight, the 10-year holding near 4.65%, and the chip leadership intact is the setup that carries the tape through the round number it stalled at today.
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Explore the MTC Incubator → Apply nowSources: Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Benzinga, Investing.com, TheStreet, XTB and Detroit News closing coverage for Thursday, August 13, 2026. July PPI unchanged (0.0% m/m) vs +0.2% Dow Jones consensus; 12-month final demand +4.7%; energy, food and transportation prices fell (per BLS via TheStreet). Wednesday’s July CPI was in line (+0.1% m/m). S&P 500 record close 7,798.99 (+0.65%), traded above 7,800 intraday for the first time ever; Nasdaq Composite 26,803.03 (+0.81%); Dow 53,839.99 (+0.13%, +69.72); Russell 2000 +0.68% to a record. VIX 14.44 (-0.76%); 10-year ~4.65% (eased a second session, TLT higher — level approximate); WTI $81.04 (-2.68%, Brent ~$87.38) after the IEA cut 2026 demand by 1.6M bpd; gold $4,447.60 (-0.45%); Bitcoin ~$63,523 (-0.39%). Semiconductor leadership: Sandisk (SNDK) +15%, Micron (MU) +5.6%, chip index +~1.8%. Movers (regular session): Birkenstock (BIRK) +11.3% (Q3 beat), Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) +11.24% (potential sale), Grocery Outlet (GO) higher; StubHub (STUB) -20.4% (earnings miss), Cerebras (CBRS) -13 to -15% (Q2 revenue miss), Tapestry (TPR) -8.8% (weak guidance). After-hours earnings Aug 13: Applied Materials (AMAT) — fiscal Q3 consensus ~$9.0B revenue, ~$3.38 EPS, options pricing ~11% move, October-quarter WFE guide the key. Catalyst backdrop: Strait of Hormuz standoff continues; IEA 2026 demand cut. Tomorrow (Friday, Aug 14): July retail sales at 8:30 AM ET (forecast ~+0.3% headline, core +0.2%), import price index (~+0.1%), industrial production (~+0.2%), and University of Michigan consumer sentiment prelim at 10:00 AM (forecast 54.1, prev 55.2).. For educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
